In the globally competitive world of the 21st century business decision-makers face unprecedented levels of change, risk and uncertainty and nowhere is this more true than in the oil and gas sector. To survive and flourish in this dynamic environment petroleum professionals need the right tools with which to analyse the economic and other challenges faced by their organizations and to anticipate and manage the many opportunities and threats that may emerge. Traditional forms of economic and financial analysis no longer meet these needs and the most progressive firms are using the power of financial models to help them analyse the challenges and take a more powerful approach to managing risk and uncertainty in their planning and forecasting
This training course will highlight:
- The challenge of risk and uncertainty in modern business
- Principles of business planning and performance management
- How financial models can be used to improve business decision-making
- Practical skills in designing financial models using Excel
- Advanced approach to analysing oil and gas sector economic indicators
- The Structure
- This comprehensive training course consists of two modules which can be booked as a 2-week Training event, or as individual, 5 Day courses.
Module 1 - Financial Analysis, Modelling & Forecasting
Module 2 - Petroleum Project Economics & Risk Analysis
This hands-on training course has been designed to provide petroleum sector delegates with real practical skills to design and build financial models that will have highly relevant applications in modern oil and gas organisations. By applying advanced techniques for economic and financial analysis, delegates will develop improved skills in forecasting and business decision-making.
By the end of this training course, participants will learn to:
- Plan the design and functionality of economic and financial models in Excel
- Use powerful functions built in to Excel for statistical and financial analysis
- Apply financial analysis techniques to improve investment decision-making
- Design and build financial models for forecasting sales, costs and profit
- Implement up to date techniques for managing risk and uncertainty
- Use financial models to assist in business decision-making
Module 1 - Financial Analysis, Modelling & Forecasting
Day 1
The Competitive Challenge in the 21st Century
- Identifying and managing stakeholder needs
- Business models and how they are disrupted
- An integrated approach to risk management
- The essentials of business performance management
- Fundamentals of Financial Modelling
- Financial statements basics
- Fundamentals of financial modelling
Day 2
Mastering Financial Analysis
- Building a financial ratio database in Excel
- Practical modelling: The cost-volume-profit relationship
- Measuring and improving return on investment
- Measuring and improving asset management efficiency
- Measuring and managing capital structure and risk
- Practical modelling: The effect of gearing on shareholders’ earnings
Day 3
Improving Financial Forecasting
- Practical modelling: using Excel statistical analysis tools
- Avoiding common forecasting problems
- Using moving averages to analyse time series data
- Using linear regression for sales trend analysis
- Using Excel Solver to minimise forecasting error
- Using regression and correlation to forecast costs
- Practical modelling: Cash flow forecasting
Day 4
Financial Models to Improve Investment Decision-Making
- Principles of capital investment decision-making
- Sources and cost of business finance
- Practical modelling: using Excel discounted cash flow tools
- Practical modelling: Capital investment analysis
- Essentials of business valuation
- Practical modelling: Business valuation based on shareholder value added
Day 5
Managing Risk and Uncertainty
- Identifying and analysing business risk
- Probability based approach to decision-making
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Sensitivity analysis and “what-if” forecasting
- Identifying the key drivers of financial performance
- Practical modelling: Key driver “what-if” forecast
Module 2 - Petroleum Project Economics & Risk Analysis
Day 6
Cash Flow Analysis
- Familiarization with Economic terms
- Setting up Cash Flow Calculation
- Depreciation Methods
- Loss Carry Forwards
- Inflation
- Nominal & Real Cash Flow
- Sunk Costs
- Project Financing
Day 7
Economic Indicators
- Economic Indicators Definitions
- Present Value Concept
- Discount Factor
- Net Present Value
- Internal Rate of Return
- Effect of Project Delay
- Payback Period
- Profit/Investment Ratio
- Incremental Projects
Day 8
Risks and Uncertainties
- Risk & Uncertainty
- Expected Value Concept
- Decision Tree Analysis
- Farm-out Decision
- Probability Analysis
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Probability Distribution
- Monte Carlo Simulation
Day 9
Setting up Spreadsheet Calculation
- Introduction to Spreadsheet Calculation
- Simple Cash Flow using Excel
- NPV calculations
- Application of economic indicators
- Class discussion
Day 10
Setting up Oil Field Development Model
- Group activities
- Setting up an Integrated Economic Model of a Typical Oil Field Development
- Project Sensitivity Analysis for the selected model
- Introduction to Russell field model
- Final remarks
The training course is designed to provide useful insights and practical skills to professionals from a wide range of disciplines and industry sectors, but particularly those involved in planning, forecasting and investment decision-making in an age of risk and uncertainty.
This training course is suitable to a wide range of petroleum sector professionals but will greatly benefit:
- Finance professionals
- Budgeting and planning managers
- Commercial managers
- Divisional managers
- Purchasing and supply chain managers
- Project managers